Friday, February 26, 2010

Verdict Unlikely To Heal Divide

Verdict on Thaksin billions unlikely to heal divide

Supporter of Thaksin Shinawatra in Bangkok, Thailand (26 Feb 2010)
Mr Thaksin still enjoys a loyal following in Thailand

Thailand's Supreme Court has confiscated much of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's family fortune, but, as the BBC's Vaudine England in Bangkok reports, the verdict is unlikely to end his appeal or heal the country's deep political schisms.

Back in 1976, Dr Weng Tojirakarn was a young student leader in protests that ended with the military opening fire and killing many of his fellow demonstrators.

He fled to the hills, where Thailand's Communist Party offered a haven for many in the radical intelligentsia of the time.

Not necessarily communist, several of those activists have since become leaders of the red shirts, like Dr Weng. Some, such as Chaturon Chaisang, were even members of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's cabinets.

Equal rights

For men such as these, the Supreme Court verdict against Mr Thaksin's private wealth is of no importance whatsoever to the struggle.

I'm not fighting for Mr Thaksin. I'm fighting for my country to be a genuine democratic system
Dr Weng

"Mr Thaksin is just only one person in this country," says Dr Weng.

"He may be an ex-prime minister but he is nothing to do with what I'm fighting for, because I'm fighting for the genuine democratic system in Thailand."

Dr Weng wants a system where "real political power must be in the hands of the people and all man is created equal, every citizen must have an equal political right and also economic chance".

"But that never happened in Thailand," he says, adding that he looks to Britain or Japan for states where the monarch is supreme and democracy thrives.

"I'm not fighting for Mr Thaksin. I'm fighting for my country to be a genuine democratic system," says Dr Weng.

To that end, Dr Weng shuts up his small, poorly decorated doctor's clinic off a frantic highway in northern Bangkok every weekend and drives back to communities of the rural poor he once ministered to as a radical young student.

There he and other leaders of the red-shirted United Front for Democracy (UDD) hold what they calls schools, to raise the political consciousness of the people.

The arguments put across and discussed with varied communities focus on the injustice of the coup in 2006 that deposed a freely elected leader.

Genie released

These lessons have added pungency as they are delivered to communities that voted for Mr Thaksin, once they realised he was going to fund small businesses, provide cheap healthcare, and generally support his voter base beyond the urban centres.

To many in Thailand, that style of governance - where a shirt-sleeved Mr Thaksin, without pomp, would tour rural areas and listen to people's problems - was new.

THAKSIN TIMELINE
Thaksin Shinawatra in Bangkok, Thailand (19 Feb 2008)
2001: Elected prime minister
19 Sept 2006: Ousted in military coup
25 Sept 2006: Corruption investigation begins
11 June 2007: Thaksin family assets frozen
25 Aug 2008: Prosecutors ask Supreme Court to seize frozen assets
21 Oct 2008: Sentenced in absentia to two years for conflict of interest in land deal
26 Feb 2010: Supreme Court seizes $1.4bn (£910m) of Thaksin family's contested assets

But to some Thais - who cannot imagine that their servants should have a vote equal in power to their own - it was threatening.

Their preferred exercise of power has been through a strong military, monarchist bureaucracy - a system Mr Thaksin cut through.

The anti-Thaksin yellow shirt protesters who helped usher in the current government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva openly spoke of wanting a new system where some people's votes counted for more than others.

This is why a billionaire businessman and his cronies can be in the same alliance as men such as Dr Weng, all of them convinced they are fighting for genuine democracy.

"This is a united front - meaning we have to co-operate where we can co-operate. What we can't co-operate on, we put aside," says Dr Weng.

Analysts are agreed that many Thais are more politically aware these days.

They call it the genie that cannot be put back in the bottle, or the toothpaste that cannot be squeezed back into the tube.

They also note that the wellsprings of anger and the sense of disenfranchisement engendered by the 2006 coup are only growing deeper and more bitter with each setback to the man they regard as the only one who cared for them.

For this reason, any hope Mr Abhisit's government might have that the latest court ruling against Mr Thaksin will fatally weaken his support base, could be in vain.

'No rabble'

Some argue that a possible lack of money to fund further red shirt demonstrations could lose it numbers and damage its ability to stage massive protests capable of bringing down the current government.

Cadets in Bangkok, Thailand

Others argue the anger will only grow and fester, becoming more dangerous over time, with or without the money.

So far the red shirts are holding to their line that they are not the violent rabble the government calls them, and their decision to hold off on any protests until the middle of March is a principled one to reinforce their point that they are not lackeys of one rich man and his wealth.

Others say they have postponed the protests because they could not be sure of getting adequate numbers to the capital - an ability likely to be diminished with the prospect of less funding in the future.

Dr Weng and his colleagues say they have been developing a red shirt movement without the benefit of any of these frozen funds.

Mr Thaksin will not be alone in seeing the judicial actions as "very political". He insists he is innocent, and a fighter, and will not be deterred.

The latest court verdict against him appears unlikely to change the political balance much either way.

Nor will it heal the divisions in this country. Brought to the boil by Mr Thaksin, many of those divisions long predate his emergence, and are likely to outlast him.

Thaksin Court Update

Thailand top court seizes part of Thaksin fortune

Thai policeman outside Supreme Court in Bangkok - 26 February 2010
Security was increased in Thailand ahead of the court's verdict

Thailand's Supreme Court has ruled that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's family should be stripped of more than half a contested $2.3bn fortune.

The court said $1.4bn (£910m) of the assets were gained illegally through conflict of interest when Mr Thaksin was prime minister.

The funds were frozen after Mr Thaksin's elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

Mr Thaksin, who is living abroad, has denied any wrongdoing.

The Supreme Court said "to seize all the money would be unfair since some of it was made before Thaksin became prime minister".

ANALYSIS
Vaudine England
By Vaudine England, BBC News, Bangkok
By choosing to confiscate some, but not all of Mr Thaksin's known assets, the court has managed to dampen arguments from his "red shirt" supporters that the entire judiciary is suborned to a military-bureaucratic elite which intends to finish off Mr Thaksin once and for all.

But it will also weaken the government's demonisation of Mr Thaksin. It appears to be saying that the former prime minister did cheat on the hiding and increase of his fortune, but he was significantly and legitimately wealthy when he entered office. He remains a rich man by any standards.

What this verdict will not do is heal the divisions in this country, polarised by Mr Thaksin's hugely popular appeal and the threat this poses to the military-bureaucratic elite. The 2006 coup that deposed him continues to damage the legitimacy of the current military-backed government of Abhisit Vejajjiva - this basic issue also goes well beyond one man and his money.

The court took several hours to deliver its verdict, with security forces on high alert amid government predictions of violence by Mr Thaksin's red-shirted supporters if the court decision went against him.

The judges said that Mr Thaksin shaped government mobile phone and satellite communications policy to benefit his firms.

He abused his power to benefit telecoms company Shin Corp, which he owned then, earning wealth from shares sales in the company through "inappropriate means", they ruled.

The sale of Shin Corp to Singapore state investment firm Temasek in January 2006 was one of the main catalysts for widespread protests calling for Mr Thaksin to resign, and the government applied for the seizure of the proceeds from the sale.

The court dismissed defence arguments that the anti-corruption commission that instigated the proceedings against Mr Thaksin was illegitimate.

Mr Thaksin addressed his supporters from Dubai after the verdict.

"This is total political involvement. The government knew the result in advance," he said, according to Associated Press.

"I've been prepared for the result since yesterday. I knew that I would get hit, but they are kind enough to give me back 30 billion [baht]."

He had previously told them he would continue his political fight against the "military-bureaucratic elite" that deposed him - with or without his family fortune.

He has said the money he and his family earned was acquired legally. The full extent of fortune is unknown, but he is thought to be very wealthy.

Tensions in Thailand remain high. Tens of thousands of extra police have been placed in and around the capital, and in areas of the north-east of the country where some of Mr Thaksin's supporters are based.

THAKSIN TIMELINE
Thaksin Shinawatra, file image
2001: Elected prime minister
19 Sept 2006: Ousted in military coup
25 Sept 2006: Corruption investigation begins
11 June 2007: Thaksin family assets frozen
25 Aug 2008: Prosecutors ask Supreme Court to seize frozen assets
21 Oct 2008: Sentenced in absentia to two years for conflict of interest in land deal
26 Feb 2010: Court seizes $1.4bn of $2.3bn in contested assets

There were only small numbers of Thaksin supporters outside the court. The pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which leads the red shirts, has said it has no plans for any demonstration until mid-March.

Local media had predicted huge disruption, counting down to what they called "judgement day".

The judges looked at whether Mr Thaksin illegally deposited his fortune with family members because he was not allowed to hold company shares while prime minister, and whether his administration implemented policies to benefit his family's businesses.

They have also considered whether telecoms liberalisation measures unfairly benefited the country's main mobile phone service provider, then controlled by Mr Thaksin's family.

And they have investigated whether he unfairly promoted a $127m low-interest loan to neighbouring Burma to benefit a satellite communications company also controlled by his family.

Thaksin Shinawatra verdict is being read by Thai court

Thailand's Supreme Court is delivering its verdict on whether to strip former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's family of more than $2bn (£1.3bn) of assets.

One of the nine judges has said Mr Thaksin illegally concealed shares in his family-owned Shin Corp telecoms firm while still in office.

The funds from the sale of the firm were frozen after Mr Thaksin was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

Mr Thaksin, who is living abroad, has denied any wrongdoing.

Security forces are on high alert amid government predictions of violence by Mr Thaksin's red-shirted supporters if the court decision goes against him.

Key pre-condition

The BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok says the court will be ruling on whether or not Mr Thaksin abused his power during his time as prime minister.

THAKSIN TIMELINE
Thaksin Shinawatra, file image
2001: Elected prime minister
19 Sept 2006: Ousted in military coup
25 Sept 2006: Corruption investigation begins
11 June 2007: Thaksin family assets frozen
25 Aug 2008: Prosecutors ask Supreme Court to seize frozen assets
21 Oct 2008: Sentenced in absentia to two years for conflict of interest in land deal

Deciding that Mr Shinawatra and his now ex-wife concealed their shares in Shin Corp is a key pre-condition to deciding if there was conflict of interest in the sale of the firm in early 2006, while he was still in office, our correspondent says.

The court has also dismissed defence arguments that the anti-corruption commission which instigated the proceedings against Mr Thaksin was illegitimate.

The court is expected to take several hours to finish delivering its verdict, finishing after the Thai stock market closes ahead of a three-day weekend.

Mr Thaksin, now living in Dubai, says he will continue his political fight against the "military-bureaucratic elite" that deposed him - with or without his family fortune.

'Judgement day'

Tensions in Thailand remain high. Tens of thousands of extra police have been placed in and around the capital, and in areas of the north-east of the country where some of Mr Thaksin's supporters are based.

There were only small numbers of Thaksin supporters outside the court. The pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which leads the red shirts, has said it has no plans for any demonstration until mid-March.

Local media have been predicting huge disruption, counting down to what they call "judgement day".

But some government and opposition figures have sought to calm fears.

Thaksin Shinawatra supporters in Bangkok - 17 August 2009
Red-shirted supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra want their leader home

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of national security, tried to play down the wider significance of the case, saying it concerned only Mr Thaksin's wealth.

"Thaksin must respect and accept the rule of law as well as other Thai people. It's not possible for the whole Thai nation to respect the law but not Thaksin," he said.

Mr Thaksin's supporters have said they resent being painted as a violent rabble and insist they are fighting for democracy and against military-backed government.

"It [a judgement] would not put an end to Thailand's crisis because now Thaksin's supporters, the red shirts - the UDD - they have evolved into their own force to be reckoned with," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

The judges have looked at whether Mr Thaksin illegally deposited his fortune with family members because he was not allowed to hold company shares while prime minister, and whether his administration implemented policies to benefit his family's businesses.

They have also considered whether telecoms liberalisation measures unfairly benefited the country's main mobile phone service provider, then controlled by Mr Thaksin's family.

And they have investigated whether he unfairly promoted a $127m low-interest loan to neighbouring Burma to benefit a satellite communications company also controlled by his family.